Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 22 Jun 2017 13:00 to Thu 22 Jun 2017 17:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Jun 2017 13:16
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/PUCIK/DAFIS

An outflow boundary formed by a mesoscale convective system is located near a line from Groningen to Hanover to Magdeburg. Southwest of this air-mass, a very unstable air mass with CAPE values of 2000 J/kg is in place, as detected by the 12Z sounding from Essen. The sounding also shows a deep and dry boundary layer, along with strong flow of more than 15 m/s at its top. These conditions suggest a high risk of damaging winds. We expect that storms will cluster, forming a common cold pool with subsequent MCS formation. Within the bowing segments of such a MCS, high-end severe wind gusts will be possible.