Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 23 May 2017 06:00 to Wed 24 May 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 22 May 2017 22:02
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for central Europe mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A wide amplifying ridge is approaching west Europe while several short-wave troughs can be found over the eastern parts. Low geopotentials over the Balkans create steep lapse rates and widespread thunderstorm activity is expected on Tuesday. The ridge is pushing the jet stream to the north, anti-cyclonically curving at its leading edge, with its SE flank entering Germany in the afternoon, increasing the vertical wind shear. At the surface, frontal activity is weak and the high-pressure systems prevail. A low-pressure system over Sweden is gradually moving east and Baltic States will experience some showers in the afternoon and another cold front is approaching N Germany in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

.... Central Europe .....

As the DLS remains weak over the most parts of central Europe, storms are expected to be almost stationary, increasing the threat of excessive rainfall. DLS of 15 m/s over Germany and North Italy, overlapping with several hundreds of MLCAPE in the afternoon, will probably result into clustering of storms. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threat. In Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, forecast soundings show highly saturated vertical profiles and PW exceed 25mm. Flash floods are almost certain is these countries due to slow-moving severe storms, as well as large amounts of small hail. As the cold front is approaching Germany, together with the vorticity max in the late afternoon, storms may become more severe in the eastern parts of the country, producing severe wind gusts. Moreover, some elevated storms may well continue during the night in S Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine.