Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 Apr 2017 06:00 to Sun 23 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 22 Apr 2017 01:10
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS

Majority of N, E, CNTRL, and SE Europe is under influence of a cold airmass with steep lapse rates and modest boundary layer moisture. Broad low over W Russia and large high over British Isles provides a strong north-western advection of even arctic airmass with a cold front stretching from Benelux up to Baltic Countries. Cut-off is located over Balkan Peninsula and within forecast period is expected to merge with a long-wave over E Europe. Higher amount of boundary-layer moisture is available within a ridge over SW Europe containing polar marine airmass, however instability is absent.

DISCUSSION

A weak low-topped convection with a small lightning activity is expected to develop within cold front and behind it in the cold sector (CNTRL and E Europe). Due to LL moisture and instability being low or even marginal (CAPE ~ 50-200 J/kg), severe convective storm potential is very limited. Similar situation takes also place in the shallow warm section over E Austria and Hungary, and within cut-off over Balkan Peninsula. Marginally severe wind gusts over frontal zones and graupel cannot be ruled out, however, the overall severe weather threat seems to be limited.