Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Apr 2017 06:00 to Sun 09 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 08 Apr 2017 01:30
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large 1020 hPa high covers S, SW, W and parts of CNTRL Europe. Axis of an eastwardly moving broad long-wave trough extends at 12 UTC from Finland through Ukraine, W Black Sea and NW Turkey. Fading cut-off with small lightning activity is located over N Algeria. Jet stream runs through N British Isles, S Scandinavia, Poland, Romania, Greece and overlaps with instability over Turkey. Thank to strong diurnal heating and building low-level moisture, a small chances for thunderstorms exist in the extreme N Spain, N Italy, SW and SE France if CI will take place. Thanks to descending motion, temperature inversion and thus convective inhibition, initiation of DMC may be prevented and only a small cumulus clouds will occur. Another small chances for thunderstorms exists on the E flank of the long-wave trough (parts of Russia and Ukraine) and on its W flank in the cold sector and secondary cold front. Cold sector low-topped convection will also take place in the corridor from Romania and Bulgaria up to Black Sea. Better organized storms with hail and wind potential are possible in the S Turkey with 400-600 J/kg CAPE and 25 m/s DLS. However, this area is outside the forecast domain and only and edge of 50% lightning prob. is included in this forecast.