Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 Mar 2017 06:00 to Thu 23 Mar 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 Mar 2017 23:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Large and deep trough is located over the Atlantic and Scandinavia, with broad belt of strong SW-ly flow simulated at its forward flank. A weak ridge of higher geopotentials is forecast over SE Europe. Closer to the surface, a wavy frontal boundary will stretch from E Spain through S France, the Alpine range, Slovakia into Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. On both sides of the frontal boundary, isolated to scattered tstms may occur. On the cool side of the boundary, isolated tstms will form under the cold-mid tropospheric temperatures in the core of the trough and in the fresh, 15 to 20 m/s of 850 hPa flow. On the warm side of the boundary (namely NE Spain, N Italy, N Serbia, E Hungary, S Slovakia and SW Ukraine), marginal latent instability is simulated with the modest low-level moisture ahead of the front. Convection that develops may become well organized, due to the 15 - 25 m/s of DLS, including some low topped supercells. Lvl 1 was considered for parts of these countries, but was discared due to the lack of instability, stronger lower tropospheric shear and stronger forcing that would sustain more widespread storm coverage.