Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 18 Mar 2017 09:00 to Sun 19 Mar 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 18 Mar 2017 08:54
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No level threats have been issued.

Marginally severe wind gusts may accompany convective activity in the 15% lightning probability area.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Broad ridge covers SW and S Europe inhibiting convective activity. Trough with low down to 985 hPa travels during forecast period through Denmark, N Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. Another shortwave approaches N edge of British Isles in the end of the forecast period. Zonally arranged jet stream extends from Ireland, trough CNTRL Europe, up to Ukraine and overlaps with expected minor convective activity over SE Germany and S Poland. Low-topped weak convection may develop in the afternoon hours in the shallow warm sector with 5-6 g/kg mixing ratios, and also along cold frontal zone. Although CAPE is predicted to be marginal (~100 J/kg), strong synoptic-scale lift and vertical stretching will contribute to CI and a small increase in instability. Due to weak updrafts and relatively warm ELs (~ 0C), lightning activity is expected to be marginal if not absent, but few IC/CGs are not ruled out along cold frontal zone. Convective precipitation may be accompanied by sleet and graupel. Around 25 m/s flow at 850 hPa with 20-25 m/s MLS may support few local severe wind incidents, especially if convection will arrange in line. However, thanks to marginal instability, convective contribution and probability for such events is predicted to be rather small, and therefore level 1 is not issued.