Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Feb 2017 06:00 to Tue 14 Feb 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Feb 2017 00:10
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the northeast Iberian Peninsula mainly for isolated excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A high is situated over S Scandinavia with a low over the Celtic Sea, A large trough passes over the Iberian Peninsula with a frontal system extending from the Celtic Sea low. This divides the Peninsula into a regime with cold air advection and an unstable setup (<500 J/kg MLCAPE) easily allowing convection, and a regime with warm air advection from the Mediterranean into the northeastern part of the Peninsula. This neutral to slightly unstable humid air will be forced over coastal orography which can produce intense rains especially in convection which may appear at the cold front.