Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 08 Feb 2017 06:00 to Thu 09 Feb 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Feb 2017 22:51
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for parts of NE Algeria coastline mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive high pressure system is centered over Scandinavia with stable and dry conditions over much of the continental Europe as the polar continental airmass is advected from Russia. More active weather pattern regarding DMC is forecast over the parts of the Mediterranean, where more abundant low-level moisture is confined. The most interesting area will be the coastline of Algeria and the adjacent Mediterranean Sea as a sharp mid-tropospheric trough, embedded in the 50 m/s jet-streak moves from Spain towards Algeria and Tunisia. Subsequently, a surface low pressure system will deepen over the Mediterranean with a low-level jet reaching more than 20 m/s at its rear part. This low-level jet is forecast to impinge on the coastline of NE Algeria with a tongue of moister airmass. Combination of modestly moist airmass and steep lapse rates underneath the core of the trough will be sufficient for at least marginal latent instability. Thus, numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms may reach coastline, with a threat of local excessive precipitation also aided by the strong orographic lifting.