Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Jan 2017 06:00 to Sun 15 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Jan 2017 00:51
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Strong high is placed W of France. Low is located over N Scandinavia. Such setup provides into CNTRL, S, N and NW Europe a broad advection of a cold arctic airmass that over water areas becomes weakly unstable. Although boundary layer is quite dry (mixing ratios ~ 2-3 g/kg), a sharp increase in the temperature lapse rates (up to 7.5 K/km) develops CAPE up 100-200 J/kg, in majority over water surface. Thanks to advection of PVU, a widespread development of a shallow convective cells is expected. Although convective updrafts are going to be weak and free convective layer will not exceed 2-3km, a local and marginal lightning activity within thundersnow clouds is possible thanks to cloud top temperatures falling below -20C. A better conditions for lightning activity (higher ELs, 200-400 J/kg CAPE) are expected in the end of the forecast period over CNTRL Mediterranean where a shallow cyclogenesis will take place. However, still weak CAPE, low shear and lack of better moisture in the boundary layer will be a limiting factor for severe convective storms.