Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 31 Dec 2016 06:00 to Sun 01 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 31 Dec 2016 08:36
Forecaster: TASZAREK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Deep low covers N Scandinavia, while a broad cut-off is placed over SE Europe. Between them, a ridge with a strong surface high (> 1030 hPa) is stretching its axis from Iberian Peninsula up to Poland, thus convective activity is inhibited in this area. Overlap of elevated lapse rates (~ 7K/km) and poor moisture in low-levels (MIXR 2-4 g/kg) over N Atlantic and E Mediterranean provides CAPE only up to 100-200 J/kg. Thanks to available large-scale lift, an isolated/clustering low-topped convection is likely to form, but the general lightning potential as well as storm severity due to weak instability is rather low.