Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 17 Dec 2016 06:00 to Sun 18 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 17 Dec 2016 01:47
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for parts of SE Spanish coast mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Broad high with strong inversion and lack of good moisture/lapse rate overlap inhibits convective activity over most of the European domain. 1035 hPa areas spread over W, CNTRL and SE Europe. N Europe remains under strong horizontal pressure gradient and the passage of the shortwave trough is expected in the afternoon hours. A cut-off is placed over Morocco. Marginal convective activity is possible within orographic lifting over W Norwegian coast where locally enhanced lapse rates and oceanic 6-8 g/kg mixing ratios provides lobes of 100-200 J/kg CAPE. More pronounced convective activity is predicted on N and NE edge of cut-off over parts of W and S-CNTRL Mediterranean. Mixing ratios of ~ 8 g/kg and ~6.7 K/km LR develops CAPE up to 400-600 J/kg. Due to instability areas being in the weakly sheared environment, a risk of severe thunderstorms is limited. However, weakly moving convective cells and superimposing convective and stratiform precipitation in the environment of ~ 20-25 PW, create a small risk of excessive precipitation over SE Spanish coast, and therefore level 1 is issued for this area.