Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 10 Dec 2016 06:00 to Sun 11 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 09 Dec 2016 21:42
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Broad high covers most of S, SW and CNTRL Europe. SE Europe remains under very dry stable airmass. Due to lack of good moisture and lapse rate overlap, instability do not develops and any convective activity is unlikely. Parts of CNTRL, NW and NE Europe is under influence of cyclonic activity with deep lows placed in N Russia and near Iceland. Advection of cold airmass over still warm waters (~ 12C) surrounding British Isles and North Sea surges lapse rates to 7.5 K/km. These overlapping with 7-8 g/kg mixing ratios develop CAPE up to 100-200 g/kg. Thanks to passage of the shortwave trough and QG-lift, weakly sheared low-topped convection with minor lightning activity will develop in the afternoon and nighttime hours over water surface near N British Isles and North Sea. Due to orographic lift over SW Norwegian coast and marginal instability, minor storms are possible in the morning and noon hours.