Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 05 Dec 2016 06:00 to Tue 06 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Dec 2016 03:55
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for N Morocco and S Spain mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for SE Sardinia mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Most of central and western Europe is under the influence of an anticyclone between Iceland and countries around the Black Sea, with cold and stable weather. An intense low over W Russia creates very windy conditions across northern and eastern Europe. A mid level longwave trough shifts out of the map from Greece and Turkey, while the low pressure system around Gibraltar should weaken, but still produce long-lasting convective activity. The western Mediterranean area is filled with a very humid air mass with a convergent easterly flow between Sardinia and eastern Spain. Convection can occur over this region, even as far north as France and Corsica, but generally will not reach heights cold enough for significant electric activity (warmer than -20ºC). The lifting of the converging winds over eastern Sardinia may trigger convection with some chance of releasing excessive rain in some locations. Similar conditions may occur for the area just to the south of Valencia in Spain, but instability is really weak. The higher chances of excessive rain are for N Morocco, where the unstable air flows over mountains, and initially still the south point of Spain.