Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 21 Nov 2016 13:00 to Mon 21 Nov 2016 17:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Nov 2016 13:47
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A line of storms has developed at the cold front over central France as revealed by significant detected lightning activity. These storms will be moving rapidly NNE-ward in an environment with around 30 m/s winds at 700 hPa, posing a risk of similar speed convective wind gusts. The 12Z Trappes sounding shows 187 J/kg MUCAPE with an EL at 6.4 km with 22 m/s 0-1 km shear vectors. This implies a significant potential for tornadoes.