Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Nov 2016 06:00 to Fri 11 Nov 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Nov 2016 19:55
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Intense long-wave trough is placed over central Europe. Strong mid-level jet curves around its base from the British Isles into the central and eastern Mediterranean and into Russia. Polar air masses have spread into Europe including the Mediterranean, where low-level moisture has strongly decreased behind a cold front. This limits the potential of thunderstorms as lapse rates will be also not well developed across most of the Mediterranean, so that just weak and shallow CAPE develops. An exception is the Adriatic that is influenced by cold mid-level air masses that allow for deep convection over the relatively warm sea surface. Vertical wind shear of around 10 m/s in the lowest 3 km overlaps the instability. A few multicells are not ruled out, capable of producing marginal hail, strong wind gusts and locally excessive rain.

A few storms are also expected over the North Sea and into the Benelux and Netherlands due to an intense short-wave trough passing in the afternoon. Soft hail and some strong wind gusts are possible with these storms.