Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Oct 2016 06:00 to Sun 09 Oct 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 08 Oct 2016 01:11
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A configuration of high over N Scandinavia and a broad low covering parts of CNTRL and E Europe brings northern cool air masses with temperatures at 850 hPa dropping below 0C. Such pattern provides marginally unstable air mass over CNTRL Europe where a weak convection will develop in the afternoon hours. However, due to shallow free convective layer, weak kinematic field and weak convective updrafts, lightning potential will be very low. A more pronounced westerly airflow remain in the Mediterranean zone on the southern flank of the low. Although good shear is available, the lack of thermodynamic instability inhibits a well-pronounced DMC activity. The pockets of increased instability may however become available near Balearic Islands where 12-13 g/kg MIXR and ~ 7 K/km lapse rates will produce CAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg, and near E Italian coast where a low developing over Corsica will provide a weak shortwave trough with 300-600 J/kg CAPE. Although both environments will remain under DLS ranging from 15 to 20 m/s, severe weather potential will be limited due to uncertain CI near Balearic Islands (remaining CIN) and low instability with shallow free convective layer E of Italy. According to current NWP modes, severe weather potential will increase in the end of the forecast validity period when a more pronounced CI will take place.