Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 31 Aug 2016 06:00 to Thu 01 Sep 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 30 Aug 2016 20:57
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Central to S Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser extent for marginally large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of N Africa mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain mainly for marginally large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Strong and wavy mi to upper tropospheric flow is taking up most of N Europe with a ridge stretching from Central Europe into Scandinavia. A short-wave will continue its progress over Russia and a cold front will push more abundant low-level moisture out of the forecast area in this region. Most of the DMC activity will be linked to the cut-off low centered over Italy. Over its central and S parts, in weak flow, scattered tstms will initiate along the mountains. Stronger cells may be capable of marginally large hail and/or downbursts, while slower moving storms may be capable of locally excessive precipitation. Slightly stronger mid-tropospheric flow to the south will promote better storm organisation over Africa with DLS values between 15 and 20 m/s. E Spain should also see storms forming on the eastern flank of another shallow low. Despite rather weak DLS, steep lapse rates and LCLs around 2 km will enhance the chances of marginally large hail and downbursts.