Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 03 Aug 2016 06:00 to Thu 04 Aug 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 Aug 2016 21:00
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for E Ukraine and Russia mainly for the excessive rainfall and to the lesser degree for marginally large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
At mid to upper troposphere, a cyclonic vortex will progress from the Atlantic towards the Northern Sea during the forecast period. At its southern flank, a strong mid-tropospheric flow with wind speeds up to 30 m/s at 500 hPa is simulated. A trough will stretch from Scandinavia southwards with is base reaching all the way towards S Turkey. To the southwest, a ridge will cover parts of the Central Mediterranean, Italy and W Balkans.
Most of the DMC activity will be associated with the E European trough, especially under the cold mid-tropospheric temperatures over Scandinavia and then in the moist low-level airmass ahead of the advancing cold front over Russia and Ukraine. An advancing vortex over the Atlantic and the Baltic Sea will also produce isolated to scattered DMC.
DISCUSSION
... Extreme N Germany, Denmark ...
A marginal latent instability is simulated in the plume of moister low-level airmass ahead of the advancing vortex over the region. Enhanced 0-3 km vertical wind shear, reaching over 15 m/s points to the possibility of better organised, albeit low-topped DMC. However, the degree of overlap with instability seems to be too marginal atm to warrant a Lvl issuance. Stronger wind gusts could accompany showers or tstms that form during the forecast period.
... E Ukraine, parts of Russia ...
Ahead of the advancing cold front, widespread DMC will form in the airmass characterized by around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Lack of strong vertical wind shear precludes well organized convection with predominance of pulse storms or chaotic multicell clusters. Rather slow storm motion will promote higher rainfall amounts, especially in the southern part of the Lvl 1 area. Stronger cells may be capable of marginally large hail and/or local downburst though.
