Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 18 Jun 2016 17:00 to Sat 18 Jun 2016 20:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 18 Jun 2016 17:36
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Lower Danube basin...

Storm Initiation is underway across the western part of the lower Danube basin. A long-lived supercell has crossed the Serbian-Romanian border and is tracking eastward.

High 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 25-30 m/s deep-layer wind shear suggest that any newly initiating storms across the MD area will become supercells with a threat of very large hail, severe wind gusts and flash floods. A risk of tornadoes will especially exist if storms remain relatively isolated and move into the even more humid air to the east. However if the storms develop into a bow echo, the main risk will be damaging wind gusts.


Moldova and Northeast Romania...

A particularly intense supercell has crossed from Romania into central Moldova while a larger cluster of convection is located over northern Romania.

A few more strong supercell storms may develop, but the convective inhibition seems to be too large on the plains of southeastern Romania to sustain storms at this time. This may change during the evening.

The clustering convection over far northern Romania will likely grow upscale and develop into an bow-echo MCS that will move quickly east-northeastward into Moldova and southwestern Ukraine. The severe weather threat will then shift from hail to damaging winds.