Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 17 Jun 2016 10:00 to Fri 17 Jun 2016 13:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 17 Jun 2016 10:49
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/PUCIK/GATZEN

Storms have initiated along and just ahead of the cold front in central and north Poland and are intensifying while rapidly moving northeastward.

Insolation ahead of the cold front and large scale upward motion ahead of the upper trough contribute to sizable CAPE in the warm sector of about 1000-1500 J/kg.

The storm along the cold front are organizing linearly into a squall line that should move northeastward with an attendant severe wind threat.

The strong-low level (0-1 bulk) shear of around 15 m/s suggest a few tornadoes to form along the line. A risk of strong tornadoes may develop with any storms that form ahead of the front, both because of their isolated nature and larger low-level hodographs some distance ahead of the front.

Relatively high cloud bases (LCL) in the southeastern half of the MD however mitigate this risk. More discrete storms especially in the south of the MD will have a risk of large hail.