Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 04 May 2016 06:00 to Thu 05 May 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 May 2016 06:05
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Dominant synoptic scale feature is still a large pool of low geopotential heights covering much of northern, central and eastern Europe, centered over the Black Sea. Within it, a belt of steeper lapse rates around 7 K/km is simulated especially at the western flank. Overlapping with enhanced low level moisture along the boundary, marginal instability will build up with CAPE values on the order of hundreds J/kg. No threat areas are introduced as only weak vertical wind shear will be observed in the areas with non-zero CAPE. Still, stronger cells may be capable of producing hail, perhaps with one or two events involving diameters up to 2 cm.