Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 30 May 2016 06:00 to Sun 01 May 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 30 Apr 2016 05:14
Forecaster: TASZAREK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Most of the NW, N and CNTRL Europe is covered with a cold polar/arctic airmass with a poor BL moisture. S and SE Europe stays under warmer, but only weakly unstable airmass. Jet bordering these masses stretches from waters W of Ireland trough NE Spain, and then divides for a stream along Mediterranean and CNTRL Europe. An axis of the easterly moving long-wave goes trough Iceland, British Isles, Benelux and France. Rest of Europe remains under blurred pressure field of 1020-1015 hPa with highs over Azores and NW Russia, and lows over Iceland and Italy. Due to lack of overlapping rich BL moisture with steep lapse rates and sufficient wind shear, severe convective storms are unlikely. However, thanks to cool air in mid-levels, a steep lapse rates provides a marginal thermodynamic instability and thus conditions for low-topped convection over multiple areas. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning with local wind gusts and marginal hail. Increased potential for lightning and hail exists over SE Germany and W Ukraine, where a thermodynamic instability will be higher (up to few hundreaths J/kg of CAPE). Although over some areas with postitive CAPE, a DLS will exceed 20 m/s, thermodynamic instability will be too weak reach a lvl 1. threat requirements. In the end of the forecast period, a cut-off will form over SE France.