Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Apr 2016 06:00 to Wed 27 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Apr 2016 23:08
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Germany mainly for large amounts of small hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A cold arctic blast takes place over North Europe, where a dry air mass intrudes into the continental parts from the North Sea. This event results in cyclogenesis between SE Norway and the UK, and the cyclonic vortex will be found over North Germany by the end of this outlook. QG-lift is expected during almost the whole day tomorrow over the level 1 area, where low-topped convective cells will produce numerous of lightnings especially during the maximum heat on the surface, thus after 12z. These storms could produce mostly sub-severe hail and/or graupel but in large quantities they pose a threat, as the 0-3km will be in the range of 10-15 m/s. Moreover, LLS is forecast to exceed the 10 m/s locally in central Germany and combined with low LCLs, steep lapse rates and SREH0-1km, there is a chance of tornadogenesis within the most active storm cells. Waterspouts cannot be excluded at the coasts of Germany, Denmark and Croatia due to LLCAPE and steep lapse rates near the 1-2km from the surface.

Isolated thunderstorms are also forecast at many other regions of Europe, with the most active ones in NE Greece and NW Turkey, mostly during the morning of Tuesday. Afterwards, diurnal heating will lead the convection in continental parts of Turkey.