Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 05 Apr 2016 06:00 to Wed 06 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 05 Apr 2016 02:30
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for E Germany mainly for the severe wind gusts and in lesser extent for the large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A passage of the long wave through the portion of W and CNTRL Europe is expected during the forecast period. Within southerly advection of warm (850 hPa ~ 10C) and moist (mixing ratios ~ 10 g/kg) air mass, a thermodynamic instability will develop in the warm section and create conditions for DMC ahead of the wave (Germany, Poland, Czech Republic). Due to warm boundary layer and an intense diurnal heating with resulting steep lapse rates and available PVA, thunderstorm are also possible in the weakly sheared environment on the eastern flank of the mid-level ridge (SE Poland, Ukraine, Moldovia) and in the belt from Greece to Romania. Another region where a small probability for isolated thunderstorms exists, covers SE Spain where the developing cutoff provides marginal instability and a source of the lift.

DISCUSSION

... E Germany ...

Ahead of the approaching cold front in the warm section of the trough, a development of the meso-low is predicted by NWP models. Due to rich boundary layer's moisture and a steepening lapse rates a CAPE up to 600-800 J/kg will originate east from the jet streak which covers Benelux and North Sea. Although an overlap with vertical wind shear will be not significant, an available DLS of 15-20 m/s will be capable of aggregating cells into multicells and in lesser extent for supercells (with locally increased 0-3km SRH to 250 m2/s2) capable of producing local severe wind gusts. Due to moist boundary layer, steep lapse rates and a moderate combination of CAPE/SHEAR, a threat for the large hail (mostly up to 3-4 cm) will be also possible. Thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon hours and after entering W Poland should fade in the evening.