Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Mar 2016 06:00 to Thu 24 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 23 Mar 2016 07:03
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for E Ionian Sea and N Aegean Sea mainly for excessive precipitation and marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Dominant feature of this forecast period is a deep cyclonic vortex over the central Mediterranean/Italy, gradually filling in on its way towards the Balkans area. A strong southwesterly to southerly jet-stream is observed on its forward flank. At the moment, scattered thunderstorms are observed near the core of the vortex thanks to the cold mid-tropospheric temperatures, thus also steep lapse rates. Rest of Europe will be under relatively dry / stable conditions, with marginal chances of DMC at best.

DISCUSSION

... E Ionian Sea / N Aegean Sea, adjacent coastlines ...

Models simulate an impressive kinematic setup in the warm sector of the low with favourably veered profiles and a strong jet-stream at mid to upper troposphere. DLS above 30 m/s and SRH0-3km above 300 m2/s2 seem like prime conditions for well organised convection, including supercells. At the same time, a plume of steep lapse rates was advected from N Africa towards the warm sector. However, soundings from previous day from Italy suggest that the warm sector is strongly capped and no thunderstorm has been observed at all in the warm sector so far. Even though models suggest that CIN should have decreased overnight, stagnating activity is proving otherwise. Lack of abundant low-level moisture during this season and a lack of surface heating due to cloudiness will also not help to boost destabilisation in the boundary layer. Therefore, we issue a conditional Lvl 1 for the area. In case that a storm forms in this setup in the warm sector and manages to root in the boundary layer, it may produce all kinds of severe threat. If only elevated convection forms, then excessive precipitation and perhaps a marginally large hail event seem most probable. This scenario seems to be most likely at the moment. More widespread tstm activity may arrive with the core of the low. However, such regime will be already in weaker shear regime with smaller chances of severe weather.