Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Mar 2016 06:00 to Tue 22 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Mar 2016 01:08
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

Under the influence of a high pressure system west of Ireland and low pressure over Finland and northern Russia, disturbances are carried with a northwesterly flow in a corridor east of the line Netherlands-Austria-Romania. A cut-off low manifests itself over the Iberian Peninsula. Thunderstorms can form thanks to steep lapse rates, allowing weakly capped but modest MLCAPE. The larger CAPE is found closer to the center of the upper cold pool, but the stronger lifting motion shall occur along the eastern gradient of the potential vorticity bubble, over central to eastern Spain, which shapes from a positive to a negative tilt between 12Z and 00Z. Small hail is likely to be observed and can accumulate locally as storms will be moving relatively slowly.