Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 14 Mar 2016 06:00 to Tue 15 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Mar 2016 04:19
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
No threat levels are issued.
SYNOPSIS
A large mid level blocking high pressure system over the Shetland Islands spans the Bristish Isles, western and central Europe and Scandinavia and ensures stable conditions in those areas.
A low over Turkey advects unstable airmass along the Turkey, Cyprus and Syrua coasts, producing thunderstorm activity. A slight mid level shortwave trough destabilizes Sicily with CAPE developing during diurnal heating. An upper cold pool dwells near the Pyrenees, slightly destabilizing the airmass, but absolute humidity is lacking for stronger convection. There is good deep layer shear (20 m/s) and 250 mē/sē SREH over eastern Spain, the doubt is that with just 100 J/kg MLCAPE convection cannot become strong enough to harvest it for severe weather production.
