Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Mar 2016 06:00 to Fri 11 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Mar 2016 05:43
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An intense vort-max injects into the western base of the European long-wave trough and digs into northern Africa. Its strong jet streak will curve around the long-wave troughs base. Downstream vort-maxima embedded in the trough will lift and weaken, forming a trough axis that extends from Sardine to the Balkans and Black Sea at the end of the forecast period. Ridging affects central Europe. Lapse rates are rather steep within the trough, especially across the west Mediterranean and over south-eastern Europe. Moisture is weak but allows for CAPE in these regions.

Therefore, thunderstorms are expected to form, focussed across the west Mediterranean, the Greece / the Aegean region, and central Italy and surroundings where mid-level vort-maxima are present. Weak vertical wind shear limits severe potential, however, marginally severe hail and waterspouts are not ruled out.

Late in the period, new storms can be expected to form east of Tunisia. Although these storms will be likely elevated as warm air masses overspread the cool boundary layer, strong vertical wind shear may allow for some better organized multicells, capable of producing large hail. Threat is expected to be too low for a level 1.