Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 09 Mar 2016 06:00 to Thu 10 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Mar 2016 07:26
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

Most of Europe is situated under a complex system of troughs and cyclonic vortices, in a large pool of generally low geopotential heights at mid troposphere. At the base of this "pool", three short-wave troughs or closed lows are observed. The first one will move rapidly from NW France towards the Balearic Sea. The second one will slowly drift over the Tyrrhenian Sea eastwards and the last one will translate towards the Aegean Sea. Each of these disturbances will be associated with he occurrence of DMC. Primary limiting factor in the severity will be still relatively meager low-level moisture. Over the E Aegean Sea, hail up to 1-2 cm may occur with the better organised cells.

DISCUSSION

... SW, W France ...

With rapidly digging short-wave, strong upward motion at its forward flank will yield a large stratiform rain shield. Towards the core, steep lapse rates will allow for a marginal instability build up with banded DMC as a result. 15-20 m/s of 850 hPa flow is simulated by models over the area along with quite weak DLS. This leads us to the notion that not very well organised DMC will form, with mostly sub-severe wind gusts. However, it is not ruled out that a one or two severe wind gusts will occur over the area within the stronger downdrafts of decaying thunderstorms.