Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Feb 2016 06:00 to Tue 01 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 29 Feb 2016 02:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of W Italy/Corsica and the W Balkan coast mainly for chances of tornadoes, severe wind gusts and marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A large low pressure system is weakening over the central Mediterranean. Its cold front will move into the Balkan countries. The amount of CAPE along the front and within the cold airmass is only half of that of the previous day. The jet stream runs over the southeastern part of the unstable airmass. It causes favorable deep layer shear and storm-relative helicity values for supercell thunderstorms mainly near Montenegro and Albania where a low-level warm tongue and convergence zone should trigger convection. Chances of marginally large hail and tornadoes are present.
The vorticity maximum moves from W to E of Corsica. It could be a favoured location for waterspouts. Large local convective rain sums can occur where storms and moist air are forced upslope for a number of hours, for example on the northwest side of Sardinia.