Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 22 Feb 2016 06:00 to Tue 23 Feb 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 22 Feb 2016 02:18
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS

A large low with core pressures under 984 hPa is situated over Scandinavia. It produces strong pressure gradients over central and eastern Europe. Its cold front is pushed southward through S UK, Netherlands, Germany and N Poland, making it to S Germany and Poland and stalling over N France by Tue 06Z. Cold unstable airmass with convective bands dwell around western Norway with isolated thunder possible. In southwestern Europe, an upper cut-off low over the Iberian Peninsula steers warm Saharan air across the Mediterranean towards NE Spain, SE France and N Italy. The PV advection causes rising motion first over Catalonia, S France and by 21Z NW Italy. Marginal unstable elevated parcels can produce local deep convection. West of Morocco lies a surface low under the cold pool, with thunderstorms being generated, intially parallel or away from shore, but also over active land during the afternoon. As storm motion will be slow an isolated excessive rain event is not ruled out, but a threat level was not issued since moisture content seems to remain quite low over land.