Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 23 Jan 2016 06:00 to Sun 24 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Jan 2016 00:19
Forecaster: TASZAREK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive 1030 hPa high extending from NW Africa to E Europe inhibits convective activity for the most of this area. A small chances for shallow isolated thunderstorms in the environment of marginal thermodynamic instability exist within a shortwave that in the afternoon and nighttime hours will pass through Italy and central Mediterranean. The most conducive conditions are forecast for Sicily and surroundings during the nighttime hours when the CAPE of 200-300 J/kg will receive a triggering mechanism.

NW Europe stays under the influence of a strong thermal gradient and SWerly flow of a marine moist air mass (a warm front with a warm section in the late forecast hours). An isolated lightning activity is possible within a passage of the geopotential wave N of Scotland and trough the parts of the Norwegian Sea where a small portion of a warm and moist (mixing ratio 5-6 g/kg) air mass will overlap with cold mid-levels and a steepening lapse rates.