Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 21 Jan 2016 06:00 to Fri 22 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Jan 2016 21:45
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large amplified long-wave trough is placed across Europe and slowly moves east. The polar jet is pushed far south to Iberia and northern Africa. Seasonably cold air masses are present over most regions, and weak moisture limits the potential of storms even across the Mediterranean.

However, a few storms are not ruled out due to a mid-level vort-max that travels SSE at the periphery of the main trough. It will affect the western Mediterranean where latest soundings already sampled relatively steep low-level lapse rates, although CAPE was still not indicated. On Thursday, some lift is expected and lapse rates could increase. Additionally, latest models indicate low-level frontogenesis. Some moisture advection can evolve ahead of a cold front, so that CAPE is possible. Initiation is forecast especially along the cold front. Vertical wind shear is rather weak, and together with weak instability, threat of severe thunderstorms is expected to be low.

Further storms are likely along the southern coasts of Turkey, where low-level convergence is expected in the gulf of Antalya. Strong vertical wind shear may favour storm organization with a threat of stronger storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The affected area is mostly to the east of the forecast domain.

Western Europe is affected by a strongly-forced weather pattern. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with an upper-level front and could produce severe wind gusts. These storms may not reach the forecast area until the end of the forecast period, though.