Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 Jan 2016 06:00 to Thu 14 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Jan 2016 21:23
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An active weather pattern is ongoing over much of Europe with a deep trough stretching from N Atlantic towards the N Mediterranean. Isolated to scattered DMC activity will be observed in several areas, where cold mid-tropospheric airmass overspreads relatively warm airmass over the sea, resulting in steep lapse rates. For example, Zadar 12 UTC Tuesday sounding has sampled steep lapse rates with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. This airmass will persist over the Adriatics region. Due to the lack of strong wind shear, threat of severe weather will be low. Waterspouts and small hail may occur though. Stronger DLS is forecast over the Ionian Sea, but will be confined to mid and upper troposphere, limiting its influence on the low-topped storms. Excessive precipitation may occur over NW Iberia, where strong low level flow will rapidly advect moist airmass (with mixing ratios up to 10g/kg) inland. Most of the precipitation should be stratiform in nature.