Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 17 Dec 2015 06:00 to Fri 18 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Dec 2015 00:12
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A trough is located across eastern Europe, extending well into the east Mediterranean. Cold air masses across the warm sea surface have resulted in steep lapse rates. Moisture is moderate, and offshore, CAPE is present. Thunderstorms have formed near the trough's base and are expected to go on on Thursday. A new round of storms is forecast over the Ionian Sea as an intense short-wave trough moves south. Chance of organized convection is enhanced given 10-15 m/s bulk shear in the lowest 3 km. Shear will partly overlap with CAPE west of a cold front that moves from Greece across the Ionian Sea. However, most shear is forecast to the east of the cold front, where low-level buoyancy will decrease in drier air. Overall threat is forecast to be rather low and a level 1 is not issued, although some large hail and severe wind gusts are not ruled out.

Some storms may also form across the western British Isles in the evening hours due to an approaching short-wave trough. Vertical wind shear will be not too strong and low-level convergence is also weak, so that severe deep moist convection is not forecast.