Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 15 Dec 2015 06:00 to Wed 16 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Dec 2015 21:16
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Under a temporary lull of the westerly flow, an anticyclone takes transient possession of most of Europe. Cool continental air oozes westward near the surface while another round of Atlantic warm air advection gears up aloft, resulting in a very stable stratification with (often even multiple) inversions and widespread stratus/stratocumulus decks per latest soundings and satellite data.
Ahead of a strengthening southwesterly flow over the Atlantic Ocean, a surge of particularly mild and moist air hits western France and the British Isles with plentiful rain and strong to severe, non-convective wind gusts. Forecast models simulate patchy CAPE in the trailing warm-conveyor belt off northwestern Spain, where embedded convection with a few lightning strikes is not ruled out. The saturated and well-sheared flow under strong warm air advection suggests that this convection will likely be elevated and slantwise. Severe weather is not expected.