Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 07 Dec 2015 06:00 to Tue 08 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Dec 2015 01:16
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for eastern Corsica mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

High pressure is situated over central Europe with very large scale low pressure systems accompanied by steep pressure gradients over the Atlantic/British Isles and northern Scandinavia/Russia. Warm air is advected from the Atlantic over Ireland and UK as well as the western Iberian Peninsula. It is followed by a cold front passage from 15Z over Ireland followed by unstable airmass. There seems to be not much overlap with the intense shear environment at the cold front itself which would benefit tornado chances.
The northern Mediterranean Sea near southeastern France and Corsica is the chosen hangout for an upper cold pool featured prominently in potential vorticity fields. It is generating unstable profiles with a few hundred J/kg CAPE, released mainly on its south and east flanks where lift is maximized. Surface convergence lines concentrate around Corsica and 0-2 km winds advect moisture upslope over southeastern part of the island, causing some potential for enduring convection with excessive rain sums. A waterspout or two is likely as well.