Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 03 Dec 2015 06:00 to Fri 04 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Dec 2015 06:12
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for north-western Scandinavia mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A broad ridge extents across most of Europe. An embedded, weak mid-level trough slowly giggs into the west Mediterranean, but cool low-level air masses and a strong inversion will limit thunderstorm potential. At the northern flank of the ridge, an intense jet stream extents from the British Isles to southern Scandinavia. Chances of deep moist convection are low due to low-level cooling of the warm maritime air masses. Behind a cold front crossing the British Isles today, weak low-level moisture is expected to reduce thunderstorm potential as well.

Storms can form across north-west Scandinavia in a deeply mixed polar air mass warmed by the sea surface. Main large-scale feature is a mid-level jet streak / vort-max traveling from the Faroe Islands eastward today. Storms are expected to organize into bowing lines with a threat of severe wind gusts given strong low-level vertical wind shear especially near the coasts.

South-eastern Europe is affected by a northerly flow. Although moisture is quite limited, weak thunderstorm activity is not ruled out across the southern Ionian Sea and Aegean Sea.