Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Nov 2015 06:00 to Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Nov 2015 23:06
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southern Ireland mainly for chances of a tornado and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A low passing north of Scotland and high pressure over the western Mediterranean causes a westerly flow over western and central Europe. A side disturbance moves over southern Ireland and UK to Netherlands during the evening and night.
Another large trough produces abundant thunderstorms over the Middle East.

DISCUSSION

A baroclinic disturbance travels with the western flow from Ireland at 18Z to Netherlands at 06Z. The situation is interesting as low-level shear is very strong near the occlusion (15-25 m/s 0-1 km) and warm sector. Wind speed in the lowest kilometers is over 25 m/s which can produce severe wind gusts in convective downdrafts. However, there is hardly any surface based CAPE associated with it except near Ireland. Most-unstable parcels are present in the warm sector in GFS with CAPE of 100 J/kg over the UK later in the night but with equilibrium levels to around -15°C, barely deep enough for electrification. The degree of overlap between dynamic lifting (mostly east of the warm front), near surface forcing (most in the west at the cold front) and CAPE (in between) appears unfavourable for organized convection eastwards.