Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 31 Oct 2015 06:00 to Sun 01 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 Oct 2015 20:55
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Malta and parts of South Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An impressive wide and strong high pressure system, with its center close to the surface over Ukraine, will steer the weather pattern during this forecast. Three cyclonic vortices surround this anticyclone, from W Scandinavia to NW coasts of the Iberia Peninsula and another one, just SE from Italy. Norway, Portugal and NW Spain will face some rainfall and gale force wind gusts but with low confidence in convective phenomena.
The stationary cut-off low over Sicily creates steep lapse rates over the warm Mediterranean Sea and some hundreds of CAPE are developed. We expect excessive rainfall over Malta, West Sicily and Calabria regions by marginal convective cells, especially the second half of Saturday. The highest DLS values are juxtaposed with the highest values of CAPE and some well organized storms could be advected to Sicily from the SE (DLS drops to 10 m/s during the night).
The local vorticity maxima gives a supplementary lifting force over the area of level 1 and SREH0-3km parameter of about 400 m²/s² in the afternoon combined with a 700 hPa jet up to 40 knots enhance the probability of a MCS formation. High resolution models produce more than 100 mm of rainfall during Saturday and Sunday morning with PW exceeding the 30 mm. Finally, the presence of LLS up to 10 m/s, mid-level shear up to 15 m/s and low LCL values suggest a promising environment for the formation of tornadoes / waterspouts near the shore.