Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Oct 2015 06:00 to Tue 27 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 26 Oct 2015 03:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for NW Algeria mainly for isolated large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A large Atlantic low has set up a moist southerly or southwesterly flow over southwestern Europe. The warm sector is mostly stable, with some slight convection possible over the Iberian Peninsula with warm equilibrium heights. Most CAPE is near the Strait of Gibraltar in the morning. The cold front enters during the evening and may be associated with linear convection over the Portugal and Spain south coasts.
Slight destabilization is also forecast during the afternoon over NW Algeria, where moderate deep layer shear may organize some storms enough to produce isolated large hail.
Parts of the western Mediterranean Sea area also show the presence of CAPE, around a minor low near the Balearic Islands. GFS and WRF models predict some convective precipitation there, with decent vertical wind shear. It seems that except for a rich surface layer there is very little MLCAPE, and mid level lapse rates are quite poor, so it appears of limited significance.