Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 23 Oct 2015 06:00 to Sat 24 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 23 Oct 2015 00:28
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for Greece, Aegean Sea and Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and in lesser extent for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Two troughs over Iceland and Finland provide an influx of warm polar air masses in their southern flanks. Weather in central and south-western Europe is dominated by the extensive Azores high that inhibits convective activity. An old cut-off is placed over south-eastern Europe providing conditions for thunderstorm activity. Main polar jet streak extends from northern British Isles up to Norwegian Sea. Strong mid-level flow is available over Scandinavia, Poland and western Turkey.

DISCUSSION

...Greece, Aegean Sea, Turkey...

A portion of 20-25 m/s DLS shifting eastwardly is available in the morning hours over Aegean Sea and western Turkey where zone of the small CAPE up to 400-500 J/kg occurs. Within supportive QG-forcing on the eastern side of the cut-off, a widespread CI is produced by the model. Convection should organize into multicellular thunderstorms with possible embedded supercells where severe wind gusts, large hail and also tornadoes with locally enhanced LLS and SRH (small region in SW Turkey) cannot be ruled out. Given relatively small values of CAPE and weakening mid-level flow in the afternoon hours severe weather threat seems to be not significant. Good overlap of high CAPE and enhanced DLS is available in the S and SE Turkish coast that lies mostly outside the forecast area. Given PW exceeding 30mm, storm clustering and slow-storm motion in the afternoon hours (due to decreasing mid-level flow) an excessive precipitation and local flash flooding cannot be ruled out.