Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 19 Oct 2015 06:00 to Tue 20 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 Oct 2015 04:44
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for N Morocco, S Spain and Alboran Sea mainly for tornadoes, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for SE Spain and Balearic Islands mainly for large hail, tornadoes and isolated excessive convective precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for W central Italy, S Sicily, Montenegro, and S Greece mainly for isolated tornadoes and excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
High surface pressure dominates from the Atlantic near Ireland all the way to Finland. A stationary mid level cold pool centered near Austria still affects central Europe with cold temperatures and precipitation. Low pressure and unstable airmasses are found over the southern and central Mediterranean. An active low spins southwest of Portugal with significant upward motion to trigger many thunderstorms over a broad area. There is a mid level cold front over central Italy and western Balkan. A low west of Crete is associated with CAPE of 2000 J/kg but should remain mostly capped during this period. Moderate deep layer shear (15 m/s) and 0-3 km SREH around 200 mē/sē is predicted for the areas indicated by level 1's, and often 0-1 km reaches 10 m/s in limited areas, so that isolated storm rotation with tornadoes and perhaps large hail is not excluded. The upslope moisture lifting can also locally produce a stationary thunderstorm with excessive rain.
DISCUSSION
...N Morocco, S Spain and Alboran Sea...
Most weakly capped 500-1000 J/kg CAPE occurs over the Gulf of Cadiz. During the afternoon, the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula appears free of CIN. Most shear is confined to the Gibraltar and Alboran Sea area, 15-25 m/s 0-6 km shear. It allows supercells which may produce large hail, tornadoes and especially on the Gulf of Cadiz coast where flow is stronger severe wind gusts.
Storms also likely continue from the night to track along the Balearic islands. Large hail parameters are peaking there due to strong mid level lapse rates and strong 25-30 m/s deep layer shear.
