Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Sep 2015 06:00 to Thu 01 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 29 Sep 2015 20:18
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for the Balearic Islands towards Sardegna mainly for the excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for waterspouts.

SYNOPSIS

A large high pressure system covers most of Central and western Europe with rather cool and dry airmass being advected from Russia towards the N Mediterranean. Most of Europe will be under stable conditions due to the lack of low level moisture and subsidence. More active pattern is forecast over Scandinavia with perhaps a few lightning strikes during the Wednesday night over the Norwegian coastline. More DMC activity is forecast to the south, over the western Mediterranean, where lower geopotentials and more abundant low level moisture are forecast.

DISCUSSION

... Balearic Islands towards Sardegna ...

A cyclonic vortex is forecast to move over the Balearic Sea towards the east, inducing surface cyclogenesis near the Balearic Islands. Low-level convergence and ample CAPE in the environment of moist airmass should result in widespread initiation. Even though vertical wind shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, continual regeneration of cells along the convergence zone will likely result in one or more MCS that will be capable of excessive rainfall, especially as the cell movement will be rather slow. Other severe weather threats should be marginal in comparison albeit several waterspouts may occur in the zones of strong low-level convergence under the convective updrafts. Activity will spread towards east during the day and will affect Sardegna and the Tyrrhenian Sea during the night hours to Thursday morning.