Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 28 Aug 2015 06:00 to Sat 29 Aug 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 27 Aug 2015 17:28
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for N-Morocco/-Tunisia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large-scale cyclonic vortex affects an area from Ireland to Norway. An extensive frontal zone runs from the Bay of Biscay all the way to N-Norway. Embedded waves result in temporarily enhanced stratiform rain, but convective-wise nothing severe is forecast. An isolated embedded storm is possible.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast over NE Europe, as cold-mid-levels overspread the warm SSTs of the Baltic Sea. This activity is diurnal driven. Gusty winds and graupel occur with a few cold-core funnels possible (especially in the 50-% lightning area with better LL CAPE).

N-Africa (especially coastal regions) has the best overlap of rich BL moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. DAAG had more than 2 kJ/kg in yesterday's ascent. Shear remains weak, but intense updrafts may produce large hail and severe downbursts. Clustering storms may produce excessive rain. Most widespread activity remains south of our forecast area. Hence no level 2 was added.