Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 Mar 2015 06:00 to Thu 19 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Mar 2015 21:42
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for extreme SW Iberia and N Morocco mainly for marginally severe rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Synoptic-scale setup over Europe will feature a rather complex scenario with two closed lows at mid troposphere, one just off the SW Iberia coastline and other, deeper one, over the Black Sea. With ridge stretching towards the British Isles, true zonal flow situation will only be confined to Scandinavia. Albeit several areas may experience isolated to scattered DMC, only SW Iberia may actually see marginally severe tstm activity with moist SE to E-ly flow. Due to the modest mid-tropospheric lapse rates, CAPE values should be only on the order of a few hundreds J/kg. Weak DLS will preclude most of the severe weather types, but isolated heavy rainfall event may occur along the zones of the enhanced low-level convergence. Thus, a low-end Lvl 1 is issued for this region.