Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Mar 2015 06:00 to Fri 13 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Mar 2015 22:39
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southern Greece mainly for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for southern Italy mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough is centred across south-eastern Europe. At its western flank, a polar short-wave trough moves southward across the Adriatic into the Ionian Sea area. Downstream, another vort-max affects the Aegean and Turkey. With northerly low-level winds, dry air spreads from the European continent into the Mediterranean, limiting the potential of seep moist convection. Further east, better moisture is expected in a westerly flow across the Aegean Sea area.

DISCUSSION

Western Turkey into Aegean Sea and southern Greece

A moist and convectively mixed air mass is present across the Aegean and to the south of Turkey. On Thursday, a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak will lead to QG forcing and lapse rates are expected to become unstable. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast. These storms may organize near an approaching jet streak leading to increasingly strong deep layer vertical wind shear. Multicells with bowing segments may pose a threat of severe wind gusts. However, the threat is expected to be to low for a level 1 across most places. Southern Greece is expected to be most affected.

Southern Italy

The new approaching short-wave trough leads to QG forcing during the day. Although moisture is limited, a few storms are forecast that can organize given strong deep layer vertical wind shear. Mesocyclones may be capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms are forecast to weaken in the evening hours when the trough leaves the area.