Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 05 Mar 2015 06:00 to Fri 06 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 Mar 2015 22:19
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the eastern Adriatic region mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for Greece and the Aegean Sea mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

A cut-off low forms across the central Mediterranean in the wake of a polar long-wave trough moving into eastern Europe. Cold and dry air spreads into the central Mediterranean. Ahead of the cut-off low, warm and moist air is advected into Greece and the Aegean. Steepening lapse rates will result in CAPE ahead of the approaching cold front late in the period.

A few thunderstorms can be expected across eastern central Europe near the base of the polar trough. Ridging across western Europe leads to stable lapse rates.

DISCUSSION

Aegean Sea and surroundings

Ahead of the approaching cold front, a warm and moist air mass affects the Aegean Sea and Greece. QG lift will lead to cooling mid-levels and lapse rates increase in the evening and night hours. Frontal lift and upslope flow are expected to assist thunderstorm initiation. Strong vertical wind shear around 20 m/s in the lowest 3 km overlaps with CAPE, and multicells are expected, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat is limited, though, given weak CAPE. Additionally, excessive precipitation is not ruled out.

Eastern Adriatic

Ahead of the cold front that moves eastward into the Balkan states, a moist maritime air mass is advected northward und lifted due to upslope flow and frontal lift. Heavy precipitation is expected. Embedded thunderstorms are forecast due to steepening lapse rates from the south. However, contribution of deep moist convection to the precipitation amount is expected to be limited.