Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 16 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 17 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 15 Jan 2015 17:30
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for SE France and NW Italy mainly for excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A large upper-level trough runs from Morocco all the way to Norway and Sweden with downstream ridge affecting E/SE Europe.

Beneath the cold mid-levels of the trough, deep convection is possible with certain areas of enhanced coverage. Numerous lightning areas were added. Marginal hail and gusty winds will be the main hazard. W-France, N/NW Spain and NW Portugal may see an isolated waterspout event with 100 J/kg LLCAPE and deep convection (despite rather brisk near BL flow).

The coastal areas of SE-France and NW Italy see a prolonged period of deep SW-erly flow. Temporarily training convection is possible but all QPFs remain in a level 1 magnitude...the progressive nature of this through and modest BL moisture/coastal CAPE will be the main reason for that. An isolated waterspout event will be possible. Along the SW-Alps, heavy rain with amounts of 100 l/qm/24h is forecast. Weak MUCAPE occurs, so a few elevated storms can occur. Therefore the level 1 was expanded far to the NE.