Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 29 Oct 2014 06:00 to Thu 30 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 28 Oct 2014 21:06
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Tunisia mainly for marginally large hail and to the lesser degree for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of southern Greece, Crete and southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

No major changes to the synoptic-scale setup are forecast in this forecast period. An active weather pattern will remain over the northern Europe with a deep trough crossing Scandinavia towards the east. Towards the south, a cut-off low will remain centered over the Balkans while a ridge will stretch from Iberia towards France.

Regarding DMC activity, much of Europe will be under dry and stable airmass. The only two regions that may experience some thunderstorms are:

1/ Norwegian Sea and the coastlina areas
An arctic maritime airmass will be advected from northwest, featuring steep mid-level lapse rates. Instability will be limited by the low mixing ratios, about 4 g/kg. Thus only weakly electrified convection is expected.

2/ parts of the Mediterranean.
Here, low level moisture along with steeper lapse rates resulting from the cool mid-level temperatures provides for marginal to moderate instability. A lvl 1 is valid for the parts of Tunisia for marginally large hail, due to the presence of the steeper mid-tropospheric lapse rates.

Other lvl 1 is issued for parts of southern Greece, Crete and southwestern Turkey. A low pressure system, along with abundant convergence, moist airmass and slow storm motions may provide suitable environment for a few excessive precipitation events. Moreover, low level buoyancy and low LCLs may be sufficient for some waterspout events, particularly in the zones of enhanced convergence near the coastlines.